In the uncertain scenario prevailing after Bal Thackeray's death, Shiv Sena watchers are fairly sure of one thing: united in grief, the Thackeray cousins could well sink their differences and make common political cause. Many in the Sena and MNS are of the view that popular sentiment and pressure from grass-roots workers will compel Uddhav and Raj to team up.
"There will be a groundswell of feeling that will bring the two together . Their combined clout will probably help fill the void created by Balasaheb's death," says a senior Sena leader. Although much depends on how Uddhav's and Raj's inner circles react to their political reconciliation (close friends and relatives of the two leaders are reportedly suspicious of any patch-up formula), realpolitik compulsions cannot be ignored . "Raj and Uddhav will have to come together if they are keen on dislodging the Congress-NCP combine in the 2014 assembly elections," says a city BJP leader.
The benefits to both parties are clear, say political observers. "The MNS cannot win more than 25-30 seats in the Vidhan Sabha on its own," says the BJP leader. "With Uddhav's fragile health (the Sena leader has undergone two angioplasties in recent months), a tie-up would be in the best interests of the Sena as well. Politically , a grand Sena-MNS-BJP-RPI alliance is the answer."
It was Uddhav's first hospitalisation that began the process of personal reconciliation—Raj , in July, had dropped everything to be at his cousin's bedside and later drove him back to Matoshree where a family reunion of sorts took place. But while the MNS chief denies that his visit to the hospital was politically motivated , Sena observers say he may have espied an opportunity in Balasaheb's and Uddhav's ailments to broker peace with Matoshree. "Raj Thackeray knows he can't be ploughing a lonely furrow. He needs the Sena's support in order to win the 2014 state assembly election. The Sena too needs him," says a Mantralaya bureaucrat.
Bal Thackeray himself was very keen on an Uddhav-Raj patch-up . After the post-hospital visit, the MNS chief again visited Matoshree in the last week of September and spent over two hours with his uncle and Uddhav. It was at this closed-door conclave that the Sena chief categorically told Uddhav and Raj to make peace "in the larger interests of Maharashtra" , discloses a close confidante of Raj Thackeray . While Bal Thackeray's strategy was clearly to ensure that the reins of the Shiv Sena did not go out of the Thackeray family, it was also to nip the NCP's threat to his party in the bud. "Unity between Uddhav and Raj may stop NCP leader Ajit Pawar from poaching on the Sena rank and file, now that Balasaheb is no longer around," says a Sena functionary.
However, a senior MNS functionary states that an outright merger between the MNS and the Sena is out of the question. "The two cousins may work in close collaboration, with Uddhav's organisational acumen complementing Rajsaheb's charisma and oratorial skills," he says. "But there is no question of the MNS downing shutters and merging with the Sena."
A section in the Sena is worried that Bal Thackeray's death could trigger a power struggle within the party . Sources in the Sena say that Sanjay Raut, executive editor of Saamna and a close confidante of the Sena chief, may emerge as the dark horse, given his long innings in the Rajya Sabha, his political acumen and the fact that he has Saamna, the Sena mouthpiece, under his belt. Also, a group of Sena MLAs from Maharashtra's heartland are reportedly upset about what they perceive as Matoshree's soft spot for Mumbai MLAs. Sena legislators from Vidarbha , Konkan and Marathwada could well flex their muscles vis-a-vis their Mumbai counterparts, adding to Uddhav's woes. "Rajsaheb has no role to play in case infighting breaks out in the Sena. But he certainly can help Uddhav defuse the inner-party crisis," says a Sena leader.
Aditya Thackeray is an undoubtedly crucial player in the scenario. Sena sources say that Uddhav's 20-something son will surely roll out of the wings to take centre-stage in the Sena and mobilise his Youngistan Team as an answer to Raj. Uddhav and his wife, Rashmi, have been grooming Aditya for a greater role in the party and the youngster has been touring Maharashtra and opening a line of communication with grass-roots workers. The Yuva Sena, which he heads, has been active in the field of education and consumer rights. "Uddhavsaheb will be the guiding force hereafter and Adityaji will emerge as the Sena's Number One leader after Balasaheb Thackeray," says a former Sena MP.
A Sena source says that Aditya wields a lot of control in the party, with Sena functionaries even touching the feet of the youngster. "He will play a key role in the distribution of party tickets in the 2014 assembly elections," says the source. Many in the Sena are of the opinion that Uddhav Thackeray's gameplan is to pit Aditya against Raj Thackeray in case the succession war hots up in the post-Bal Thackeray era. But whether Shiv Sainiks, especially the seniors, will accept Aditya as Raj's replacement and Uddhav's political successor is a question on which hinges the Sena's dynastic politics in the years to come.
What now for Shiv Sena?
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What now for Shiv Sena?
